• “Shock the System: Emergency Powers and State Capacity.” (With Bryan A. Rooney). GovernanceForthcoming. 
  • “Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrian Refugees on Voting Behavior in Turkey.” (With Deniz Sert). International Migration, 57(2): 298-312, 2019.
  • “A Dynamic Model of the Spread of Intrastate Wars.” All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace, 8(2): 231-253, 2019.
  • “System Dynamics Modeling in International Relations.” Forthcoming at All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace.
  • “Conflict and Cooperation in the Northern Middle East.” Forthcoming at Jacek Kugler and Ronald L. Tammen (eds.), The Rise of Regions (Rowman & Littlefield).
  • “Consequences of Reversing European Union Integration” (With Jacek Kugler and Birol Yesilada). Foreign Policy Analysis, 11(1): 45-67, 2015.

Working Papers

  • “Rebuilding States: Influences of Foreign Aid on War Recovery.” (With Tadeusz Kugler and Kyungkook Kang). Under Review.
  • “Relative Political Capacity: A Dataset to Evaluate the Performance of Nations, 1960-2015.” (With Kyungkook Kang and Tadeusz Kugler). In Preparation for Submission.
  • “Understanding and Forecasting Order and Change in the Northern Middle East.” (With Resat Bayer). In Preparation for Submission.
  • “Beyond the Phoenix Factor: Postwar Recovery and Reconstruction of Nations.” In Preparation for Submission.
  • “Political Capacity and National Leadership.” In Progress.
  • “Causalities as Policy: Comparing Recovery After War vs Genocide.” (With Tadeusz Kugler and Kyungkook Kang). In Progress.
  • “Using Ego Utility to Predict International Belligerence.” (With Galib Rustamov). In Progress.
  • “Targets of Terror.” (With Santiago Stocker). In Progress.
  • “Tinderbox or Tripwire? Demographic Theories of Conflict Onset and Escalation.” In Progress.

Non-Refereed Publications

  • “The Costs of Syrian Civil War and Propositions for Syria’s Post-War Recovery.” Global Relations Forum Policy Paper Series, No: 11, 2019
  • “ISIS Foreign Fighters: An Econometric Analysis on the Global Flow of Militants Joining Islamic State.” (With Ryan Greer). Global Impact Strategies (giStrat) Report, 2016.
  • “School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach.” by Atila Abdulkadiroglu and Tayfun Sonmez.  Translated for the Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1(2): 302-326, 2014.


I am the principal investigator of the Relative Political Capacity (RPC) dataset. RPC consists of measures of extraction, reach, and allocation capacities for 156 countries between 1960 and 2015. There is also an extended version of the extraction measure, which covers 1919 to 2015, albeit for fewer countries. A project to refine and transform RPC into an absolute, GDP-like measure is currently in the works.

You can obtain the RPC data and its components by contacting me or through TransResearch Consortium.